Higher Mortgage Interest Rates Slow Housing Production
Housing starts edged lower last month as average monthly mortgage rates increased a quarter-point from 6.18% to 6.43% between September and October, according to Freddie Mac.
Overall housing starts decreased 3.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The October reading of 1.31 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 6.9% to a 970,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 9.3%. The volatile multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 9.6% to an annualized 341,000 pace but are down 29.3% on a year-to-date basis.
“Although housing starts declined in October, builder sentiment improved for a third straight month in November as builders anticipate an improved regulatory environment in 2025 that will allow the industry to increase housing supply,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and custom home builder from Wichita, Kansas.
“While multifamily starts were up in October, the number of apartments under construction is down to 821,000, the lowest count since March 2022,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve through 2025 should result in lower interest rates for construction and development loans, helping to lead to a stabilization for apartment construction and expansion for single-family home building.”
On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 10.4% higher in the Northeast, 1.7% lower in the Midwest, 5.0% lower in the South due to hurricane effects, and 4.4% lower in the West.
Overall permits decreased 0.6% to a 1.42 million unit annualized rate in October. Single-family permits increased 0.5% to a 968,000 unit rate and are up 9.4% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits decreased 3.0% to an annualized 448,000 pace.
Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 0.9% higher in the Northeast, 3.9% higher in the Midwest, 2.4% lower in the South and 4.8% lower in the West.
Multifamily completions are elevated as the apartment construction slowdown continues. In October, there were 1.8 apartments that completed construction for every one apartment that started construction.
The National Association of Home Builders is a Washington-based trade association representing more than 140,000 members, and is affiliated with 700 state and local home builder associations around the country.